45% of Massachusetts Democrats are out of the Democratic mainstream

Submitted by ssachs on September 12, 2006 - 2:44pm.

... if by "mainstream" you mean, "the group consisting of Chris Gabrieli and his family". Via Adam Reilly, CBS4 has an astounding new poll out:

Deval Patrick has taken a commanding lead in the Democratic race for governor in Massachusetts. ... The Fast Track survey found 45% of likely Democratic primary voters throwing their support behind Deval Patrick, up 11% since our August 22 survey. Chris Gabrieli remains about even from our last survey, at 29%, with Tom Reilly dropping 9 points to 21%.

Cross-tabs are available here. It was a SUSA poll with a 4.1% margin of error - not bad, but not great either. The universe appears to be 609 likely voters who are Democrats or independents.

The pollster claims that Patrick's surge was chiefly the result of his debate performance. After seeing Chris Gabrieli tower like some kind of Jolly Green Giant over the rest of the stage, at the debate, I don't think so. I think it's Patrick's TV ads, pure and simple. He's picking up maybe 30-35% of the electorate off of sheer ground game, and the air campaign has bought him another 10% or so. As such, I don't think tomorrow night's debate will matter quite as much, although clearly Patrick will need to show up and play ball.

We'll see if this poll sticks or if it's a fluke, as I'm sure at least one more poll will be out in the next week, but one way or the other, expect still more voter contact from your friendly neighborhood blog.

ssachs's blog | add new comment
( categories: Elections - Statewide )
I disagree
Submitted by Anonymous (not verified) on September 13, 2006 - 2:21am.

Just because Gabrieli is tall doesn't mean he automatically won the debate. Deval did very well by all accounts and surely got significant percentage points from it. The ground game can't account for the fact that both Gabrieli and Reilly lost support in the newest polls, so that would suggest that the reason Deval gained support is directly related to Reilly and Gabs losing it. Certainly, the debate is a possibility. Another possibility is the Boston Globe's endorsement. Ads also come into play, but there were ads up before the last set of polls - so I doubt that would account for the full shift. It's likely an assortment of things, but the debate and the media coverage (including the endorsement) have certainly come into play - especially since they contrast Deval directly with his opponents.

reply